Key Points
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Bitcoin needs to become quantum secure within the next five years.
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Zcash and Ethereum will likely beat it to the punch on that front.
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If there’s a credible quantum computing threat, it could thus drive those coins to surpass Bitcoin.
- 10 stocks we like better than Zcash ›
Under the right combination of circumstances, Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) could be worth more than Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) by late 2031, as could Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). As of Sept. 25, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.7 trillion, whereas Ethereum’s is $329 billion and Zcash’s is $26.5 billion.
To close the large gap between where those challengers are compared to Bitcoin today, it would take a mishandling of a major crisis by the top dog, and there’s one problem in particular that could ultimately fit that bill. Let’s walk through what the crisis might be, and then examine how and why Zcash and Ethereum could potentially use it to surpass Bitcoin.
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Quantum computing could create a huge shakeup of the crypto leaderboard
The cryptography that secures the Bitcoin network can theoretically be cracked by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. Such quantum computers do not yet exist, though they may exist within the next five years if some of the companies making them are successful. If one were used to crack Bitcoin’s encryption, funds could be stolen directly from people’s on-chain wallets that have already exposed their public keys, and, if such theft were discovered, it woud likely trigger a rapid capital flight, cratering the coin’s price.
More than 34% of all Bitcoin is currently vulnerable according to the authors of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 361, which seeks to fortify the network against a subset of the potential problems posed by quantum computers. For now, BIP-361 is just a proposal under evaluation. If it’s eventually approved by the developer community for implementation, its final phase of activation would only kick in five years afterward, so a 2027 activation would imply a 2032 finish. This kind of long timeline for security improvements is quite typical for Bitcoin, and the other BIPs pertaining to mitigating the risk of quantum computing are likely to take just as long.
But even reaching a consensus on what approach to take to ward off the quantum risk is going to be a challenge. Some proposals would require holders to take action to migrate their coins to new quantum-secure wallet types; those who failed to perform those actions in a timely fashion would, after a years-long deadline to allow for the transition to be completed, face heavy restrictions on accessing their assets once the transition period ended.
Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, has a stash of about 1.1 million BTC which have never been touched or moved. Freezing those coins would deny any quantum computer-equipped hackers the prize of all prizes. But doing that would fundamentally break the chain’s enduring promise of property rights, specifically that only the owner of a wallet controls the coins within.
So the debate about precisely how best to secure Bitcoin against quantum computers will not be trivial to resolve. The longer it goes on, the higher the risk of a quantum breach. Again, even once there’s a consensus, the transition period would take years before the network could be considered quantum secure.
Which coin could end up worth more than Bitcoin?
If a confirmed quantum computing codebreaking attack happens during that long process, it would punish Bitcoin’s price. And if there were another blockchain that managed to become quantum secure much sooner, it would be a logical place for the money fleeing Bitcoin to go.
Ethereum would need a 5.1-fold gain relative to Bitcoin to surpass it, and Zcash would need 64-fold growth.
Ethereum thus has a much shorter distance to climb. But, capital fleeing from a store of value with broken encryption (Bitcoin) would seek the closest safe substitute, and Ethereum isn’t it. Zcash, on the other hand, uses Bitcoin’s same maximum limit on its supply, produces new coins via mining, experiences a regular halving which lowers the reward from mining, and also adds the ability to perform optional private transactions that hide sender, recipient, and amount.
Zcash has already discussed transitioning to new post-quantum cryptography that isn’t vulnerable, and it also has a recent track record of responding quickly to security problems.
Its Ironwood upgrade, launched in late July, gives new shielded funds a potential recovery path if there’s a breach in the encryption that the chain currently uses. In May 2026, the head of the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), which handles much of Zcash’s core protocol work, said he expects it to reach full post-quantum operational status within 12 to 18 months.
In contrast, the Ethereum Foundation set a December 2029 target, which could be too late.
Therefore, Zcash is the more likely of the pair to be worth more than Bitcoin in the next five years, provided that both a quantum computing scare and insufficient preparation occur as described above.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.